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| China’s Ambitious Qianfan Megaconstellation: Challenges, Opportunities, and Global Implications Image credit: ChinaPower Project - CSIS |
China's ability to launch spacecraft has significantly expanded over recent years, growing from 22 launches in 2016 to 67 in 2023. This impressive growth has been driven by major projects such as the BeiDou navigation satellite system, the construction of a space station, and the expansion of national space infrastructure. However, none of China's current launch vehicles are reusable, and the country’s four national spaceports are already operating near full capacity.
To realize the Qianfan megaconstellation, China will need to develop new rockets and spaceports—a task that is already underway.
The Ambitious Qianfan Project
China has recently launched the first batch of satellites for its ambitious Qianfan megaconstellation, a project led by Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology (SSST). This initiative, also known as Spacesail or G60, aims to deploy nearly 14,000 satellites by 2030.
The project is backed by significant investment, including 6.7 billion yuan ($943 million) from Shanghai's municipal government, underscoring its importance to China's plans for global connectivity, e-commerce support, rural connectivity, and national security. However, achieving this goal will require launching an average of over seven satellites per day for the remainder of the decade.
The Need for New Spaceports
To accommodate the massive launch schedule required for the Qianfan project, China is developing new spaceports. One such facility is being built on the South China Sea island of Hainan, close to the national Wenchang spaceport. This new commercial spaceport is expected to host a modified Long March 8 rocket, which will play a significant role in launching the Qianfan constellation. Plans for up to 10 launch pads have been announced, and both Beijing and Shanghai have launched initiatives to attract and support space companies.
However, it remains to be seen whether these plans will translate into the necessary infrastructure to meet the ambitious launch schedules.
Challenges in Scaling Launch and Manufacturing Capabilities
Despite the rapid expansion of China’s launch capabilities, scaling up to meet the demands of the Qianfan project presents significant challenges. Experts question whether China’s launch vehicle production capabilities can be scaled to deploy nearly 14,000 satellites by 2030. Moreover, the project is not vertically integrated like SpaceX’s Starlink, which controls both the launch and satellite manufacturing segments.
Qianfan’s manufacturing entity was only established in 2022, and the first satellite was produced in late 2023, raising concerns about the satellites’ spaceworthiness and durability.
The Implications of Space Debris
The first Qianfan launch on August 6, 2023, using a Long March 6A rocket, resulted in the creation of hundreds of pieces of debris when the rocket’s upper stage broke up.
This incident highlights a critical issue: Qianfan satellites will operate at an altitude of 800 kilometers, about 250 kilometers higher than Starlink satellites. This means that any debris from the Qianfan satellites, along with the satellites themselves, could remain in orbit for decades, potentially posing a long-term threat to other spacecraft in lower orbits as they eventually descend back to Earth.
Global Ramifications of the Qianfan Constellation
The Qianfan megaconstellation represents a significant advancement in China’s satellite and launch capabilities. However, the rapid increase in launch rates required to meet the project’s ambitious timelines will likely exacerbate existing concerns about space debris, potential collisions, orbital crowding, and the impact on astronomy.
The international community will need to consider these issues as China continues to expand its presence in space, and cooperation and coordination will be crucial to managing the shared space environment effectively.
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