China’s Renewable Energy Surge Outpaces Global Efforts Amid Uncertain Emission Peaks and Coal Dependence

China’s Renewable Energy Surge Outpaces Global Efforts Amid Uncertain Emission Peaks and Coal Dependence

China has made significant strides in renewable energy, adding as much new clean energy generation in the first half of 2024 as the UK produced from all sources throughout 2023. This surge in wind and solar power highlights China’s leadership in green technology, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). As the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China's progress in clean energy is seen as a pivotal factor in the global fight against climate change.

A Potential Turning Point in China’s Carbon Emissions

For the first time since China reopened its economy after the zero-Covid policy lockdowns, carbon dioxide emissions from energy use and cement production began to decline in March. CREA reported a 1% drop in CO2 output during the second quarter of 2024, with power sector emissions down by 3% and cement production emissions by 7%. This reduction, though modest, has fueled speculation that 2023 could mark the peak of China’s carbon emissions, which would have significant implications for global climate action.

Renewable Energy Surpasses Coal in Capacity

In 2023, China set a record by installing 293GW of wind and solar capacity. Last month, solar and wind power combined exceeded the capacity of China’s coal-fired electricity for the first time. According to Rystad Energy forecasts, solar power alone will surpass coal as China’s primary energy source by 2026, with a capacity of more than 1.38TW, outpacing coal by 150GW. This shift is also reflected in the country’s electric vehicle sector, where more than half of all new models sold in July 2024 were hybrids or fully electric vehicles.

Uncertainties Surrounding China’s Emission Peak

Despite these positive developments, experts caution that the peak in China’s emissions may be tentative. The slowdown in China’s construction sector, linked to issues in the property market, has temporarily reduced emissions from high-carbon industries like cement and steel. However, should the government implement stimulus measures to boost these sectors, emissions could rise again, as seen after a similar drop in 2014 that was followed by a resurgence in 2017.

Coal Continues to Complicate China’s Green Transition

Coal remains a central challenge in China’s energy landscape. Despite the rapid growth in renewable energy, coal accounted for 60% of China’s power generation in 2023. Moreover, China continues to build new coal-fired power plants, adding over 40GW of capacity in 2023, though this rate slowed to 8GW in the first half of 2024. This ongoing reliance on coal poses a significant obstacle to achieving the steep emission reductions required to meet global climate targets.

Global Implications of China’s Energy Decisions

China’s progress in renewable energy is crucial for global climate goals, especially as the world’s second-largest economy is responsible for about a quarter of global carbon emissions. With the 2024 US election and potential shifts in global climate policies looming, the decisions made by China will significantly influence the global fight against climate change. The upcoming Cop29 UN climate summit will further scrutinize China’s actions, as nations prepare to update their emissions-cutting plans under the Paris Agreement.

Conclusion: The Road Ahead for China’s Climate Action

While China’s rapid expansion in renewable energy offers hope for significant global climate progress, the country’s continued investment in coal and the uncertainties surrounding its emission peak indicate that the path forward is complex. The world is watching closely as China’s energy policies and economic decisions will play a critical role in shaping the future of global climate action.